Fed

I am looking at a Laurent Ferrier Sport Auto but wanted to get your thoughts on LF specifically and the independent world in general. To get there, some background. The following is a list of brands that were once high flying to some degree. Some are gone. Some are around but have fallen from their heights.

1. Maîtres du Temps
2. Jean Dunand
3. Celsius X VI II
4. Cabestan
5. De Grisogono
6. Romain Jerome (RJ)
7. HD3 Complication
8. Loiseau
9. Badollet
10. HYT
11. MCT (Manufacture Contemporaine du Temps)
12. Breva
13. Ladoire
14. 4N
15. Valbray
16. Christophe Claret (The Brand)
17. Franc Vila
18. Pierre DeRoche
19. Wyler Genève
20. DeWitt
21. Guy Ellia
22. Manufacture Royale
23. Vincent Bérard
24. Antoine Martin
25. Rebellion
26. Hysek
27. Hautlence
28. Devon
29. Goldpfeil

Here is an article written by Just Hast about a Cabestan and collector in 2013: https://monochrome-watches.com/the-collectors-series-gavin-foo-and-his-more-than-special-cabestan-luna-nera/

If you read the words this interviewee is saying, they are the same exact words everyone uses today about independent watches and watchmakers. We like to believe that there is some new independent movement but from what I can tell researching the old Timezone forums and articles like this - we have always been here. We have always been here. If so, this time is probably no different.

The epilogue to the Cabetstan article above is that Cabetsan is gone and if you want to get one serviced you can send it to Hong Kong where there is a watchmaker that made his own tool to open the thing to start to hope to service it. Everything is serviceable with enough effort and cost so I wont say it is unserviceable but it isn't easy and nobody is talking about Cabestan but me.

Where I am getting with this is - is this time different? Is there something fundamentally different today or are many, most, all, independents, like Laurent Ferrier, destined to be added to my list above right below Goldpfeil?

Knowing all of that, the question "should I buy Laurent Ferrier?" is kind of stupid. That asks the person answering to either predict the future which nobody can do or say "buy it if you love it" which we all know is a cop out. We all know we don't want to buy something that is difficult or impossible to service in 10 year or carries so much Franck Muller/culture risk that, like Franck Muller or Cabestan, will be an almost worthless trinket in the future.

So, the actual question of "should I buy a Laurent Ferrier" is really a risk analysis. Nobody can predict the future but how risky do you think an LF is in the future? I am not asking whether the price will go down 10%, 20%, or 30%. I don't really care there. I am asking if you have any inside industry knowledge about future viability and/or based on past experience what your gut says about what I am calling Franck Muller risk where LF becomes more or less a tombstone for the independent scene of 2025.

While you are at it, do you have a list of independents that you think have reached escape velocity? Lets keep the list to at least being fairly accessible. FPJ is there but not interesting for this discussion.

Hope that made sense.